Two Counties, Two Very Different Housing Markets: What’s Happening in Northern California?

Let’s look a little closer to home. According to Redfin, Ione’s three-month rolling median sale price through September was $504,260, up 1.9% year over year, with homes spending a median 73 days on the market. Jackson’s rolling median was $519,703, up 40.5%, with a median 55 days on market. Now, before anyone in Jackson starts celebrating a 40% increase in their home’s value, there’s an important detail: only 15 homes sold there during September. Smaller markets can experience substantial changes in median prices simply because different types of properties are selling. That’s why determining what an individual home is worth requires examining comparable sales rather than relying on a citywide percentage. Sources: Redfin — Ione (https://www.redfin.com/city/9339/CA/Ione/housing-market) and Redfin — Jackson (https://www.redfin.com/city/9402/CA/Jackson/housing-market).

Over in San Joaquin County, we’re seeing another interesting contrast. Redfin’s three-month rolling median sale prices through September were $438,041 in Stockton, $527,249 in Lodi, $589,719 in Manteca, and $661,668 in Lathrop. But look at how quickly homes were selling: Stockton averaged a median 30 days on market, Lodi 34 days, Manteca 44 days, and Lathrop 64 days. Meanwhile, Realtor.com’s September report showed that 23.3% of active listings in the Stockton-Lodi metropolitan area had experienced a price reduction. For sellers, that reinforces the importance of pricing correctly from the beginning. For buyers, it suggests there may be opportunities to negotiate, particularly when a property has been sitting on the market longer than comparable homes. Sources: Redfin city housing reports and Realtor.com — Stockton-Lodi September Market Report (https://www.realtor.com/news/local/stockton-ca/real-estate-market-stockton-ca-september-2026/).

Our neighboring communities around Sacramento are telling their own stories. Elk Grove’s three-month rolling median sale price was $629,700, with homes spending a median 31 days on market. Galt’s median was $534,745, with 43 days on market, while Rancho Murieta recorded a $662,185 median and 51 days on market. Here’s something I always want homeowners to remember: a change in median sale price doesn’t necessarily represent an equivalent change in your property’s value. Median prices reflect the homes that happened to sell during a particular period. Repeat-sales indexes, such as the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index and the Case-Shiller indexes, instead use transactions involving the same properties over time to measure price changes. They’re different tools that answer different questions. Sources: Redfin housing market reports for Elk Grove, Galt, and Rancho Murieta; FHFA House Price Index Methodology (https://www.fhfa.gov/faqs/hpi).

Now, let’s talk about mortgage rates and affordability. According to Freddie Mac’s October 22 report, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 7.32%, down from 7.40% the previous week. That’s a little welcome relief, although rates remain considerably higher than the 6.19% recorded a year earlier. Meanwhile, the California Association of REALTORS® reported that statewide existing single-family home sales declined 6.5% year over year in September, while the statewide median sale price reached $899,720, up 1.7%. The statewide sales figure was a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 260,410 homes. For buyers, this is a reminder that affordability involves more than just the interest rate. Purchase price, down payment, property taxes, insurance, and financing options all deserve consideration. Sources: Freddie Mac Mortgage Rate Survey (https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/archive) and California Association of REALTORS® (https://u.car.org/en/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/sept2026sales).

There’s also an important issue that deserves attention, particularly in our foothill communities: homeowners insurance. Following the Gann Fire, the California Department of Insurance established a temporary one-year protection against certain insurance cancellations and nonrenewals for qualifying properties within the designated wildfire perimeter and adjoining ZIP codes in portions of Amador, San Joaquin, Calaveras, Tuolumne, and Stanislaus Counties. The protection does not automatically apply to every property in those counties. For anyone buying or selling, I recommend investigating insurance availability and costs early in the process. And whether you’re buying your first home, selling a longtime family property, or preparing for your next chapter, remember this: the best real estate decision isn’t necessarily the one everyone else is making. It’s the one that makes sense for your goals, your finances, and your future. Source: California Department of Insurance — Gann Fire Insurance Protections (https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0102-alerts/2026/Commissioner-Lara-protects-more-than-64.cfm).